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Their first debate behind them, Barack Obama and John McCain head into the homestretch with the race largely where it was before the debate - tight but tilting toward Obama.
He's getting a boost from Democratic enthusiasm, the number of Republican states in play and seemingly even from a financial crisis driving anti-Washington sentiment to a fever pitch, playing into his "change" theme.
Yet despite all that, McCain is still very much in the hunt. His campaign takes comfort in the fact that Obama holds only a narrow lead despite the financial meltdown, and McCain's own stumbles. The Arizona senator had a solid debate performance inMississippi on Friday, right when he needed it most.
But increasingly it appears that McCain will need some kind of a "game-changer" to overcome some of Obama's built-in advantages. Two events this week provide opportunities, and risks - a congressional vote on a Wall Street bailout and a closely watched vice-presidential debate Thursday.
He's getting a boost from Democratic enthusiasm, the number of Republican states in play and seemingly even from a financial crisis driving anti-Washington sentiment to a fever pitch, playing into his "change" theme.
Yet despite all that, McCain is still very much in the hunt. His campaign takes comfort in the fact that Obama holds only a narrow lead despite the financial meltdown, and McCain's own stumbles. The Arizona senator had a solid debate performance inMississippi on Friday, right when he needed it most.
But increasingly it appears that McCain will need some kind of a "game-changer" to overcome some of Obama's built-in advantages. Two events this week provide opportunities, and risks - a congressional vote on a Wall Street bailout and a closely watched vice-presidential debate Thursday.
The biggest problem for McCain is that he's running out of time to change the dynamic of the race.
"McCain's work is cut out for him," said Bruce Buchanan, a presidential scholar at the University of Texas at Austin. "He's going to continue to look for ways to shake things up, even at the risk of seeming not only desperate, but even occasionally a little reckless, because he's got few other alternatives that I can see at this moment."
Obama, too, had a good performance at the debate - strong enough in the eyes of many experts to begin convincing voters that he is up to the job of commander-in-chief, the key test the first-term senator had to pass Friday night. Two overnight polls rated him the winner but many analysts said neither candidate emerged as a clear victor.
But coming into the closing weeks, one consistent theme of the campaign remains true - if McCain can't hold a lead over Obama, it's also true that Obama can't seem to put away McCain, much to the worry of Democrats who wonder why he's not doing better in a virulently anti-Republican campaign season.
Some blame racial prejudice, saying that helps explain why Obama simply hasn't closed the deal with a whole host of voters - elderly Democrats, ex-Hillary Rodham Clintonsupporters, Rust Belt lunch-bucket workers - though most recent polls indicate he may be gaining ground.
Those groups should all be voting Democrat this year, and if they come home to Obama, he will be impossible to beat.
Obama's campaign is predicting a tight race to the final days. "We assume a lot of 50-48s," close votes in battleground states, campaign manager David Plouffe said.
So for both men, the task ahead is much the same - turn out their voters in massive numbers; reach into that shrinking pool of undecided voters, roughly 1-in-5; and convince the nation that they can navigate the choppy waters on Wall Street and abroad.
All of that was in play Friday night, one of three chances for the candidates to speak directly to voters. Both camps tried to spin the results as a victory, with McCain's campaign saying he showed surer command of foreign affairs and Obama's saying he excelled at an area presumed to be McCain's turf.
And already both were debating the intangibles - did McCain look like "the grumpy old uncle at Thanksgiving," calling Obama naive, as presidential historian Thomas Whalen of Boston University put it? Was Obama too deferential in agreeing with McCain a half-dozen or more times?
Those questions are likely to be less important in the long run than upcoming events. Next up is a Wall Street bailout vote this week, where McCain hopes to score points by saying he brought House Republicans into the deal - a notion Democrats hotly dispute.
Then comes Thursday's vice-presidential debate between Republican Sarah Palin and Democrat Joe Biden, and Republicans can't hide their nervousness about Palin's relative lack of foreign policy experience.
"She just can't charm her way through an hour and a half debate," one Republican strategist said yesterday.
The silver lining for the GOP - the garrulous Biden might well slip up with the kind of gaffe that was missing from the Obama-McCain showdown.
"McCain's work is cut out for him," said Bruce Buchanan, a presidential scholar at the University of Texas at Austin. "He's going to continue to look for ways to shake things up, even at the risk of seeming not only desperate, but even occasionally a little reckless, because he's got few other alternatives that I can see at this moment."
Obama, too, had a good performance at the debate - strong enough in the eyes of many experts to begin convincing voters that he is up to the job of commander-in-chief, the key test the first-term senator had to pass Friday night. Two overnight polls rated him the winner but many analysts said neither candidate emerged as a clear victor.
But coming into the closing weeks, one consistent theme of the campaign remains true - if McCain can't hold a lead over Obama, it's also true that Obama can't seem to put away McCain, much to the worry of Democrats who wonder why he's not doing better in a virulently anti-Republican campaign season.
Some blame racial prejudice, saying that helps explain why Obama simply hasn't closed the deal with a whole host of voters - elderly Democrats, ex-Hillary Rodham Clintonsupporters, Rust Belt lunch-bucket workers - though most recent polls indicate he may be gaining ground.
Those groups should all be voting Democrat this year, and if they come home to Obama, he will be impossible to beat.
Obama's campaign is predicting a tight race to the final days. "We assume a lot of 50-48s," close votes in battleground states, campaign manager David Plouffe said.
So for both men, the task ahead is much the same - turn out their voters in massive numbers; reach into that shrinking pool of undecided voters, roughly 1-in-5; and convince the nation that they can navigate the choppy waters on Wall Street and abroad.
All of that was in play Friday night, one of three chances for the candidates to speak directly to voters. Both camps tried to spin the results as a victory, with McCain's campaign saying he showed surer command of foreign affairs and Obama's saying he excelled at an area presumed to be McCain's turf.
And already both were debating the intangibles - did McCain look like "the grumpy old uncle at Thanksgiving," calling Obama naive, as presidential historian Thomas Whalen of Boston University put it? Was Obama too deferential in agreeing with McCain a half-dozen or more times?
Those questions are likely to be less important in the long run than upcoming events. Next up is a Wall Street bailout vote this week, where McCain hopes to score points by saying he brought House Republicans into the deal - a notion Democrats hotly dispute.
Then comes Thursday's vice-presidential debate between Republican Sarah Palin and Democrat Joe Biden, and Republicans can't hide their nervousness about Palin's relative lack of foreign policy experience.
"She just can't charm her way through an hour and a half debate," one Republican strategist said yesterday.
The silver lining for the GOP - the garrulous Biden might well slip up with the kind of gaffe that was missing from the Obama-McCain showdown.
Source: Newsday.com
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